Today, US and European stock futures are trading higher amid signs that the next round of tariffs from President Donald Trump may be more restrained than expected. Investors responded positively to reports of potential negotiations between the US and China, easing fears of a further escalation in the trade war. Markets also appear resilient to geopolitical risks, buoyed by expectations of continued stimulus measures from central banks. However, despite the optimistic sentiment, caution is still warranted due to ongoing risks related to trade disputes and the slowing pace of global economic growth.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 climbed, alongside a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira weakened, as traders remained on edge following a volatile period sparked by nationwide protests.

Regarding tariffs, sentiment improved as the upcoming round of US trade restrictions — set for April 2 — is expected to be more targeted rather than broad-based. Still, traders remain wary of warnings from Chinese and Australian officials about large-scale disruptions to the global economy stemming from US trade policy.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers cautioned that the new US administration's approach may have a seismic impact on the global economy, while Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated that China is prepared for shocks that could exceed expectations.

News of more focused tariffs sparked a rally across Asian markets. However, anxiety remains high ahead of the official announcement of the measures, which are set to take effect next week. According to several officials, Trump plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs against select countries or blocs, while excluding others. As of now, the administration does not plan to implement industry-specific tariffs, contrary to Trump's previous hints.

Investors are also bracing for increased volatility in Turkish assets following the official arrest of a key opposition figure. Short selling has already been banned on many financial instruments in Turkey's stock market, suggesting expectations of continued market instability. The central bank held a technical meeting with commercial lenders on Sunday to prepare for volatility and has since imposed a short-selling ban on equities.

In commodities, oil prices remained stable as traders weighed the potential impact of additional US tariffs and the upcoming supply increase from OPEC+. Gold hovered near $3,022 per ounce, close to the all-time high reached on Thursday.

This week, traders will monitor economic activity data from Europe, the UK, and the US for signs that growth is slowing due to tariff uncertainty. Australia's inflation report is due ahead of US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — at the end of the week.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

The recovery is going on. Today, the primary goal for buyers will be to break through the nearest resistance at 5,715. This could pave the way for further gains and a potential move toward the next level at 5,740. A key priority for bulls is also to establish control above 5,766, which would strengthen their position. On the downside, if risk appetite weakens, buyers must defend the 5,692 area. A break below this level could quickly send the index back to 5,670 and open the path toward 5,645.