Yesterday's data on UK manufacturing activity for March showed a decline from 46.9 to 44.9. Against the backdrop of the U.S. index falling from 52.7 to 50.2, the drop in the UK index looks discouraging — especially since this is the lowest figure since October 2023. Investors pushed the pound slightly lower, but by the end of the day, it returned to previous levels in anticipation of the upcoming "tariff announcement."

As reflected in the media, market expectations remain moderately optimistic — that is, tariffs for the UK will be more lenient compared to mainland Europe. We agree with this assessment and expect the pound to rise from 1.3001 to 1.3101. The Marlin oscillator has dipped into negative territory but appears ready to stabilize horizontally.

On the H4 chart, the price is struggling around the balance line. For bulls to strengthen their positions, the price must consolidate above the MACD line — above 1.2933. The target at 1.3001 would then become achievable. The Marlin oscillator is attempting to enter positive territory and is close to doing so — this is the main scenario.

The price would need to break below the 1.2816/47 range to develop a bearish scenario. This would open the path to the target at 1.2714.