Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test of 1.1663 coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and skipped the small downward move.

The lack of statistical data from the eurozone kept the pair within a channel, exerting slight downward pressure on the euro. It is clear that investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach, refraining from active moves while waiting for new catalysts. The modest trading volumes indicated overall market uncertainty. External factors also played a limiting role. In particular, the anticipated meeting between Trump and Putin, supported by European partners, could be beneficial for the euro — but only if it turns out to be productive.

No significant U.S. economic data is expected to be released in the second half of the day, which suggests that the slight downward pressure on the euro seen in the morning will likely fade quickly. In other words, in the absence of catalysts such as macroeconomic statistics or unexpected geopolitical developments, the pair will probably continue moving in a narrow range, showing more stagnation than active trading.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible around 1.1655 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.1689. At 1.1689, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro today is unlikely. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1633 price level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1655 and 1.1689.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1633 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1609, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25-point move in the reverse direction. Selling pressure on the pair may persist in the second half of the day. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1655 price level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1633 and 1.1609.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually closing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually closing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.