The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, which is encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the integrity of the structure is preserved. This allows for accurate forecasts. It should be noted that wave structures do not always look textbook-perfect, but at the moment, the picture is very clear.

The formation of an upward trend segment continues, while the news background remains mostly unsupportive of the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. His confrontation with the Federal Reserve continues. "Dovish" expectations are growing. Trump's "one big law" will increase U.S. government debt by 3 trillion dollars, while the U.S. president keeps raising and introducing new tariffs. Markets have assessed the results of Trump's first six months in office rather poorly, even though GDP growth reached 3% in Q2.

At this point, it can be assumed that wave 4 is complete. If that is the case, then the formation of impulse wave 5 has begun, with potential targets extending up to the 1.2500 level. Of course, the corrective structure of wave 4 could take a more extended five-wave form, but I am proceeding from the most likely scenario.

The EUR/USD rate rose by 20 basis points on Tuesday, but price swings remain extremely muted in recent days. There is nothing surprising here, as this week has not yet brought any economic events of real interest to market participants. Today, the first U.S. reports will be released, but judging by their titles alone, they are unlikely to attract attention. Market participants are used to meaningful publications such as business activity, unemployment, inflation and its derivatives, GDP, sales, or industrial production. Construction sector reports are not part of this list.

Since there is little else to discuss, let us turn to geopolitics. Today, Donald Trump made several more statements regarding the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Specifically, the U.S. president assured that Ukraine will not be abandoned, that it will regain significant territories, but that President Zelensky must be flexible in negotiations with Vladimir Putin, which could take place soon. Also, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Donald Trump has received an official invitation to visit Russia. When this visit will occur and what topics will be discussed remain unclear.

In my view, a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is still far off, but I would like to highlight one important point — I am almost certain that about 80% of the information in the media is "fake" or misinformation. I would not be surprised if the key points of a future ceasefire agreement have already been approved. Otherwise, why hold negotiations between the leaders of the powers, after all parties have avoided them for the last 3.5 years?

General Conclusions.

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background tied to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of the trend segment may extend up to the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. I assume that wave 4 is complete. Accordingly, this is a good time for buying.

Main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction never exists. Always remember protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.