On the hourly chart, GBP/USD traded around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3408 on Friday without a clear direction. On Monday, the pair advanced toward the resistance level of 1.3454–1.3466, which has repeatedly halted bullish attempts to move higher. Thus, we have already seen the initial reaction to reports of an agreement being reached between Iran and the United States, but further movement will once again depend on concrete facts rather than statements. At the moment, no agreement has been signed, and Iran's nuclear program has not even been discussed. Traders recognize the fragility of the ceasefire, agreements, and understandings that have been reached and are in no hurry to launch a bullish offensive. A rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 1.3408 level and the support level of 1.3349–1.3355. Consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539.

The wave structure has turned bullish, as the market has started to believe in a deal between Iran and the United States. The latest completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. If an agreement is signed by the end of the week and neither side violates the ceasefire or withdraws from negotiations, the bulls will be able to continue their advance.

The news background was not supportive of the pound on Friday. The United Kingdom released two reports, which were the only major economic releases last week. GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while industrial production showed zero growth. Therefore, neither report provided support for the bulls. Nor did they support the bears. Over the weekend, optimistic news emerged regarding the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, but bulls are not rushing into the market, as they have been disappointed many times before by Donald Trump's promising statements. When the agreement is signed, then there will be reason to celebrate. Given recent developments, bulls are currently in a more favorable position, but their advantage is just as fragile as the agreements between Iran and the United States.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3327. Consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of further gains in the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,944, while the number of Short positions increased by 4,051. The gap between Long and Short positions now stands at approximately 46,000 versus 109,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage is currently more than twofold.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict, but the latest news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although it is unlikely to be easy or quick.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Industrial Production (13:15 UTC).

June 15 contains only one economic event, which I do not consider significant. Therefore, the impact of the economic calendar on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions were possible after a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. This target has been reached. New long positions may be considered after consolidation above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.