Analysis GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed no notable movement on Thursday and has been standing still all week. The upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line, but it is clear that the upward impulse is weakening and has practically turned into a flat. Until the price consolidates below the trend line and the Senkou Span B line, we would not draw conclusions about the end of the upward trend. The US dollar still has no grounds for growth. Of course, this does not mean that the dollar cannot rise in principle, but in 2026 it has already used all growth factors. Some of them twice. Corrections are, of course, possible, but the pound sterling retains growth prospects, at least on technical grounds. In the long term, the upward trend that began back in 2022 remains.

Yesterday the first and last reports of the week were published in the UK. GDP in Q2 was 0.4% as forecast, and industrial production decreased by 0.2%, which is unsurprising. The market reaction to these two events was a 15-pip drop. That is all you need to know about GBP/USD movements.

In technical terms, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly TF. It should be recalled that, in the long run, the pair is in a sideways channel and can continue moving from the lower boundary to the upper. The area 1.3465–1.3488 serves as serious support for the pound, and slightly below it there is also the trend line. The US currency is likely to struggle to show growth in the near future.

On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one buy signal formed, but there was no point in trading it because market movement is still absent. Certainly, traders can open positions, but counting on profit now is extremely difficult.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market, with sales for several consecutive months. The net position is negative despite the persistence of the long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics can support demand for the US dollar in the near term. However, until there is consolidation below the trend line, we would not expect a strong fall in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 4), the "Non-commercial" group closed 6,500 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,000 contracts.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" upward and have been trading within sideways channels for a full year. This does not cancel the upward trend that began back in 2022. For the pound sterling, we expect continued growth in the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price consolidates below the trend line.

For August 14 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3471) and Kijun-sen (1.3508) lines may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the stop-loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Friday, there are no important events or publications scheduled in the UK, but the economic reports on Thursday elicited little reaction. There is no movement in the market, and the macroeconomic backdrop cannot awaken it. In the US today — retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders can open short positions with the target 1.3388 if the price consolidates below the area 1.3465–1.3480 and the trend line. Long positions can be opened in the event of a bounce from the area 1.3465–1.3480, with the target 1.3588.

Notes on illustrations:

Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines — transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels — thin red lines from which price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines — trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each category of traders.