Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also continued its upward movement. The reasons are the same as for the EUR/USD pair. The entire macroeconomic backdrop on Friday once again had virtually no relevance for traders, although it must be acknowledged that, for once, the macroeconomic data from the UK was strong. February's GDP rose by 0.5%, significantly higher than expected, and industrial production increased by 1.5%, well above forecasts. As a result, the British pound received an additional bullish factor early in the day. Whether it was needed is unclear—sterling has been rising nearly every day for three months now. Further movement in the currency pair will continue to depend on the state of the global trade war—especially the relationships between the U.S. and the EU and the U.S. and China.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe Friday, the price also frequently changed direction, and volatility remained high. As a result, a large number of trading signals were generated, about half of which were less than ideal. As previously mentioned, current market movements are emotional and erratic. While some signals can yield solid profits, the percentage of false signals is also quite high.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair should have entered a downtrend long ago, but Trump continues to do everything he can to push the dollar lower. Since the official start of the global trade war, we've refrained from making long-term projections for currency pairs. The market remains under the control of Trump and his decisions: He announces new tariffs, and the dollar drops. He raises tariffs, and the dollar drops again. When escalation pauses, the market moves sideways.

On Monday, GBP/USD may remain in a stormy state. Predicting how the pound and the dollar will move today is practically impossible. The pair continues to rise logically at the moment, but no one knows what new headlines might emerge from Beijing, Brussels, or Washington.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels are valid for trading: 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272.

No significant events are scheduled for Monday in the UK or the U.S., but that doesn't mean important developments won't occur throughout the day. The trade war continues and is gaining momentum. So far, Trump's "discounts" have had no positive effect on the dollar.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.