Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 142.93 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 30 pips before the pressure eased.

Today's strong data on machinery and equipment orders in Japan and renewed discussions about trade tariffs increased pressure on the U.S. dollar, leading to a decline in the USD/JPY pair. Investors analyzing macroeconomic indicators closely monitor such reports, as they serve as important signals of the Japanese economy's health. An increase in orders indicates rising business activity and investment, which in turn supports the national currency.

The market's reaction was quite sharp, with the yen showing a noticeable surge against major currencies. Traders are likely reassessing their positions in light of new information about Japan's economic outlook following progress in negotiations over U.S. tariff relief. In the long term, the yen's resilience will depend on multiple factors, including tariff developments and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point at 142.69 (green line) with a target of 143.54 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 143.54, I plan to close the buy position and open a sell position in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips). It's best to return to buying on corrections or deep pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before entering a buy position, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.05 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward 142.69 and 143.54 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below 142.05 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 141.16, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Selling the yen requires caution.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.69 level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 142.05 and 141.16 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.