EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded exclusively sideways. There was no macroeconomic background that day, and traders seemed to head for the weekend early. As a result, Friday's volatility was very low. Since the market showed almost no movement, there is no point in identifying what influenced the pair — essentially, nothing did.

That said, it cannot be said that the current fundamental background is absent or weak. Last week, several members of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee expressed readiness to cut the key rate in September. Now, about half of the Committee openly speaks about the need to lower rates to support the labor market. FOMC members agree that the pressure on the economy from Donald Trump's trade war is stronger than previously assumed, even though Q2 GDP growth was much higher than the most optimistic forecasts.

Upcoming monetary policy easing, Trump's tariff wars, pressure on the Fed, pressure on the Bureau of Statistics, and geopolitical tensions — all these factors potentially point to another decline in the dollar. Most importantly, the trade war is not ending but rather expanding. Therefore, we expect further weakening of the U.S. currency.

On the 5-minute chart on Friday, the price formed three perfectly accurate and identical trading signals. Three times, the price rebounded from the 1.1666 level, but the maximum downward movement was only 25 pips. In other words, the signals were excellent, but volatility was absent.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated August 5. As the chart above clearly shows, the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for a long time, while bears barely entered the dominance zone at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office, the dollar has only been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but current global developments point precisely in that direction.

We still see no fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, but there remains one very significant factor for the dollar's decline. The long-term downtrend remains intact, but at this point, what does it matter where the price has moved over the past 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may start to rise, but recent events have shown that the war will continue in one form or another.

The positioning of the red and blue indicator lines still signals a bullish trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 1,400, while short positions increased by 5,900. As a result, the net position fell by 7,300 contracts over the week — an insignificant change.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair continues forming a new upward trend. On the H1 timeframe, the price is above the Ichimoku indicator lines, and on the daily chart, it has rebounded from the Senkou Span B line. Thus, considering both technical and fundamental factors, there are far more reasons to expect continued dollar weakness than renewed euro weakness. Trump continues to take actions that escalate the trade war.

For August 11, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1590) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1615). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction — this will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

For Monday, there are no important events or publications scheduled in either the eurozone or the U.S. We expect another "quiet Monday," and only Trump could stir up the market.

Trading Recommendations

On Monday, the price may continue to rise, at least based on a rebound from the Senkou Span B line (daily timeframe) and a rebound from the 1.1615 level on the hourly chart. However, a flat scenario is also possible. Therefore, we remain focused on long positions targeting 1.1750–1.1760, but the 1.1666 level must be overcome. On Monday, it is also possible to trade on rebounds from the nearest levels.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
• Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.